Among the proximate causes of AIG’s failure were previous calls for collateral made by its credit default swap trading counterparties, including Goldman Sachs. They were entitled to pressure AIG on its prices and demand more collateral; I had publicly challenged AIG’s prices myself more than a year earlier. These actions gave a major push to AIG’s subsequent credit downgrade, which tripped contract triggers that AIG had unwisely permitted its more clever counterparties to insert. (The credit default swap market is not standardized.) This meant AIG had to come up with collateral equal to the entire remaining amount of the credit default swap contract. Unfortunately, AIG was essentially bankrupt at this point and it couldn’t meet its obligations. The government could have stepped in and renegotiated its contracts. [Goldman’s “hedges” might have disputed whether a reduced payment triggered a restructuring event, if applicable, in their contracts.] But that isn’t what happened.
via ZeroHedge
28.10.09
29.9.09
Beatles e Taoísmo
Without going outside, you may know the whole world.
Without looking through the window, you may see the ways of heaven.
The farther you go, the less you know.
Thus the sage knows without travelling;
He sees without looking;
He works without doing.
(Trecho do capítulo 47 do livro taoísta Tao Te Ching, escrito pelo filósofo chinês Lao Tzu em 600 A.C. Forma o bojo da letra da canção "Inner Light", dos Beatles)
Without looking through the window, you may see the ways of heaven.
The farther you go, the less you know.
Thus the sage knows without travelling;
He sees without looking;
He works without doing.
(Trecho do capítulo 47 do livro taoísta Tao Te Ching, escrito pelo filósofo chinês Lao Tzu em 600 A.C. Forma o bojo da letra da canção "Inner Light", dos Beatles)
29.7.09
lúcida vox
Jânio Lopo, da Tribuna da Bahia
O ideal mesmo é que os debates se deem à base de ideias. Isso é o que dizem os chamados intelectuais, embora empolgante é quando o pau come apareçam os podres de cada candidatura. Wagner pode ser o rei da cocada preta (ou branca), mas não há bem que sempre dure nem mal que nunca acabe, como diria minha finada avó. Afinal, um dia a casa cai. Leio nos jornais e, como observador meio atento, assisto conversas mil, da oposição e da situação, sobre o desempenho de Wagner. Nem tudo são flores.
Há os que defendam ardorosamente uma mudança radical no primeiro escalão do governador, principalmente nas áreas tidas como fundamentais, imprescindíveis ao dia a dia da população em geral. Wagner está careca de saber disso. Se não mexe na equipe é porque lhe ensinaram erroneamente, que não se bole em time que pode estar perdendo. É um conceito um tanto quanto perigoso. Mas cabe ao governador mantê-lo ou redefini-lo o quanto antes. Se ele quer glamour (entenda por glamour a reeleição) as chances estão todas em suas próprias mãos. Afinal, como diz a personagem de um programa humorístico “ tô pagando!...
O ideal mesmo é que os debates se deem à base de ideias. Isso é o que dizem os chamados intelectuais, embora empolgante é quando o pau come apareçam os podres de cada candidatura. Wagner pode ser o rei da cocada preta (ou branca), mas não há bem que sempre dure nem mal que nunca acabe, como diria minha finada avó. Afinal, um dia a casa cai. Leio nos jornais e, como observador meio atento, assisto conversas mil, da oposição e da situação, sobre o desempenho de Wagner. Nem tudo são flores.
Há os que defendam ardorosamente uma mudança radical no primeiro escalão do governador, principalmente nas áreas tidas como fundamentais, imprescindíveis ao dia a dia da população em geral. Wagner está careca de saber disso. Se não mexe na equipe é porque lhe ensinaram erroneamente, que não se bole em time que pode estar perdendo. É um conceito um tanto quanto perigoso. Mas cabe ao governador mantê-lo ou redefini-lo o quanto antes. Se ele quer glamour (entenda por glamour a reeleição) as chances estão todas em suas próprias mãos. Afinal, como diz a personagem de um programa humorístico “ tô pagando!...
17.7.09
Salvador 2009
A capital do Estado da Bahia goza de uma oferta no mínimo curiosa em matéria de jornal impresso. O vivente pode comprar o Correio da Bahia (manchete de hoje: lançamento do filme de Harry Potter) por R$ 1, a Tribuna da Bahia por R$ 1,50 (capa -um buraco no canal de contenção do Parque Costa Azul, até um pouco mais relevante) e o A Tarde (criação de empresas cresce 18%. (o) ) por R$ 1,75. Um mercado bem segmentado e com boa flutuação.
11.7.09
EUA, México e o ciclo drogas/armas
Para entender a guerra contras as drogas no "México": do New York Times
30.6.09
Unabomber manifesto
Publicado nos maiores jornais dos EUA em 19 de setembro de 1995, no auge da campanha de terror concebida por Theodore Kaczynski para derrubar o sistema tecno-econômico com bombas pelo correio.
40. In modern industrial society only minimal effort is necessary to satisfy one's physical needs. It is enough to go through a training program to acquire some petty technical skill, then come to work on time and exert very modest effort needed to hold a job. The only requirements are a moderate amount of intelligence, and most of all, simple obedience. If one has those, society takes care of one from cradle to grave. (Yes, there is an underclass that cannot take physical necessities for granted, but we are speaking here of mainstream society.) Thus it is not surprising that modern society is full of surrogate activities. These include scientific work, athletic achievement, humanitarian work, artistic and literary creation, climbing the corporate ladder, acquisition of money and material goods far beyond the point at which they cease to give any additional physical satisfaction, and social activism when it addresses issues that are not important for the activist personally, as in the case of white activists who work for the rights of nonwhite minorities. These are not always pure surrogate activities, since for many people they may be motivated in part by needs other than the need to have some goal to pursue. Scientific work may be motivated in part by a drive for prestige, artistic creation by a need to express feelings, militant social activism by hostility. But for most people who pursue them, these activities are in large part surrogate activities. For example, the majority of scientists will probably agree that the "fulfillment" they get from their work is more important than the money and prestige they earn.
41. For many if not most people, surrogate activities are less satisfying than the pursuit of real goals (that is, goals that people would want to attain even if their need for the power process were already fulfilled). One indication of this is the fact that, in many or most cases, people who are deeply involved in surrogate activities are never satisfied, never at rest. Thus the money-maker constantly strives for more and more wealth. The scientist no sooner solves one problem than he moves on to the next. The long-distance runner drives himself to run always farther and faster. Many people who pursue surrogate activities will say that they get far more fulfillment from these activities than they do from the "mundane" business of satisfying their biological needs, but that it is because in our society the effort needed to satisfy the biological needs has been reduced to triviality. More importantly, in our society people do not satisfy their biological needs autonomously but by functioning as parts of an immense social machine. In contrast, people generally have a great deal of autonomy in pursuing their surrogate activities.
40. In modern industrial society only minimal effort is necessary to satisfy one's physical needs. It is enough to go through a training program to acquire some petty technical skill, then come to work on time and exert very modest effort needed to hold a job. The only requirements are a moderate amount of intelligence, and most of all, simple obedience. If one has those, society takes care of one from cradle to grave. (Yes, there is an underclass that cannot take physical necessities for granted, but we are speaking here of mainstream society.) Thus it is not surprising that modern society is full of surrogate activities. These include scientific work, athletic achievement, humanitarian work, artistic and literary creation, climbing the corporate ladder, acquisition of money and material goods far beyond the point at which they cease to give any additional physical satisfaction, and social activism when it addresses issues that are not important for the activist personally, as in the case of white activists who work for the rights of nonwhite minorities. These are not always pure surrogate activities, since for many people they may be motivated in part by needs other than the need to have some goal to pursue. Scientific work may be motivated in part by a drive for prestige, artistic creation by a need to express feelings, militant social activism by hostility. But for most people who pursue them, these activities are in large part surrogate activities. For example, the majority of scientists will probably agree that the "fulfillment" they get from their work is more important than the money and prestige they earn.
41. For many if not most people, surrogate activities are less satisfying than the pursuit of real goals (that is, goals that people would want to attain even if their need for the power process were already fulfilled). One indication of this is the fact that, in many or most cases, people who are deeply involved in surrogate activities are never satisfied, never at rest. Thus the money-maker constantly strives for more and more wealth. The scientist no sooner solves one problem than he moves on to the next. The long-distance runner drives himself to run always farther and faster. Many people who pursue surrogate activities will say that they get far more fulfillment from these activities than they do from the "mundane" business of satisfying their biological needs, but that it is because in our society the effort needed to satisfy the biological needs has been reduced to triviality. More importantly, in our society people do not satisfy their biological needs autonomously but by functioning as parts of an immense social machine. In contrast, people generally have a great deal of autonomy in pursuing their surrogate activities.
26.6.09
Philip K. Dick on Robert Heinlein
In 1963, Dick won the Hugo Award for The Man in the High Castle. Although he was hailed as a genius in the science fiction world, the mainstream literary world was unappreciative, and he could publish books only through low-paying science fiction publishers such as Ace. Even in his later years, he continued to have financial troubles. In the introduction to the 1980 short story collection The Golden Man, Dick wrote: "Several years ago, when I was ill, Heinlein offered his help, anything he could do, and we had never met; he would phone me to cheer me up and see how I was doing. He wanted to buy me an electric typewriter, God bless him—one of the few true gentlemen in this world. I don't agree with any ideas he puts forth in his writing, but that is neither here nor there. One time when I owed the IRS a lot of money and couldn't raise it, Heinlein loaned the money to me. I think a great deal of him and his wife; I dedicated a book to them in appreciation. Robert Heinlein is a fine-looking man, very impressive and very military in stance; you can tell he has a military background, even to the haircut. He knows I'm a flipped-out freak and still he helped me and my wife when we were in trouble. That is the best in humanity, there; that is who and what I love."
21.5.09
Gregory Rabassa e Edith Grossman
Os dois maiores tradutores americanos de português e espanhol discutem a literatura latino-americana.
http://www.pen.org/audio_archive/Grossman_Rabassa.mp3
http://www.pen.org/audio_archive/Grossman_Rabassa.mp3
15.5.09
14.5.09
Fake News Corporation
Al Nite Lang, legendary editor of the What’s News column, was found dead in his house yesterday, said the New York Police Departament. People familiar with the situation said the cause of death was palm oil overdose. A spokesman from Dow Jones declined to comment. News Corp. stock fell 1.100,354/265%, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest closing ever, at -1,890.93 points.
9.5.09
work in progress
A modernidade é um tema explorado pelos dois autores, mas com objetivos totalmente opostos. Para Wright, a modernidade é um elemento que redime e representa sua crença no progresso do mundo ocidental. Mas no conto “The Gilded Six-Bit”, de Hurston, a modernidade é uma força corruptora. Eis uma história que pode ser interpretada facilmente pelos moldes da tradicional narrativa de traição e perdão num relacionamento, mas cujo sobretom de crítica ao materialismo permeia o conto inteiro, a começar pelo ritual semanal do casal, em que o marido, ao chegar do trabalho, chacoalhava moedas e chocolates nos bolsos, inciando um jogo erótico complexo que simboliza o fato de que a felicidade no casamento é diretamente relacionada à capacidade do marido como provedor. Quando um charmoso homem do Norte chega à provinciana Eatonville, trazendo consigo a sedução da riqueza aparente e da modernidade urbana, ele impressiona tanto o marido que este acaba usando sua própria bela mulher para tentar se afirmar perante o novo “rival”.
Neste conto, Hurston critica não apenas a idealização do materialismo, mas também o comportamento da esposa, que permite ao marido usá-la como um objeto e dominá-la financeiramente, um tema que se repete na obra de Hurston. No clássico “Their Eyes Were Watching God” (1937), ou “Seus Olhos Viam Deus” em português, uma das poucas obras dessa geração publicadas no Brasil, Hurston descreveu as convenções sociais que aprisionavam as mulheres, mas ofereceu a libertação através do amor e da aventura.
Neste conto, Hurston critica não apenas a idealização do materialismo, mas também o comportamento da esposa, que permite ao marido usá-la como um objeto e dominá-la financeiramente, um tema que se repete na obra de Hurston. No clássico “Their Eyes Were Watching God” (1937), ou “Seus Olhos Viam Deus” em português, uma das poucas obras dessa geração publicadas no Brasil, Hurston descreveu as convenções sociais que aprisionavam as mulheres, mas ofereceu a libertação através do amor e da aventura.
Beware of the sucker's rally!
Do Financial Times
The granddaddy of all bear markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent. And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then.
Bear markets typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast, bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds. Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in 1982.
The granddaddy of all bear markets, 1929 –1932, had six false alarms with an average gain of 47 per cent. And Japan’s ongoing bear saw the Nikkei rise by at least a third four times in its first four years with 10 more false dawns since then.
Bear markets typically end with a whimper rather than a bang, casting doubt on the latest recovery according to Hussman Econometrics, which analysed numerous US market bottoms and bear market rallies. With the exception of the 1987 crash, the month before the lowest point of a downturn saw a gradual descent. By contrast, bear market rallies were preceded by steeper declines and had sharper rebounds. Another characteristic of bear market rallies has been modest volume on the rebound compared to the decline. The current recovery fits the pattern of bear market rallies in terms of volume and the “V” shape of the trough. Analysts at Bespoke Investment Group noted that there have been only seven other periods in the past 110 years with rallies of similar magnitude for the Dow. Three preceded the Great Depression, three came during the Depression and one in 1982.
15.4.09
The oath
I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.
(Should be rendered by standing at attention facing the flag with the right hand over the heart. When not in uniform men should remove any non-religious headdress with their right hand and hold it at the left shoulder, the hand being over the heart. Persons in uniform should remain silent, face the flag, and render the military salute.)
3.4.09
G-Force: Berlusconi e a Rainha
A cena foi mais ou menos a seguinte: Berlusconi grosseirão gritando "Mister Obama" no fim da foto grupal com a Rainha da Inglaterra, Obama respondendo, educadamente (Mister Berlusconi...) e a Rainha passando pito no italiano: "What it is it?!".
2.4.09
G-force 2009
Terminou a reunião dos líderes do mundo.
Lula, Obama e Gordon Brown fizeram as pazes
com Hu Jintao e Medvedev, e decidiram ressuscitar
o FUNDO MONETÁRIO INTERNACIONAL.
Isso me lembra De Volta para o Futuro. Voltamos
aos anos 80. Vou deixar o cabelo virar mulet
e tirar a poeira do meu terno de ombreiras.
Parecia a liga da justiça.
Do Economist:
Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging, as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%. American unemployment figures on April 3rd , which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate the world economy may have avoided a 1930s-style Depression so far. But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay down their debts.
Lula, Obama e Gordon Brown fizeram as pazes
com Hu Jintao e Medvedev, e decidiram ressuscitar
o FUNDO MONETÁRIO INTERNACIONAL.
Isso me lembra De Volta para o Futuro. Voltamos
aos anos 80. Vou deixar o cabelo virar mulet
e tirar a poeira do meu terno de ombreiras.
Parecia a liga da justiça.
Do Economist:
Financial markets rallied after the G20 news, though this was as much because of sprigs of good economic news emerging, as the harmony that was displayed. This was despite disappointment that the European Central Bank had cut its main interest rate on Thursday, by just a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.25%. American unemployment figures on April 3rd , which could be shocking, may puncture some of that optimism, and should temper any temptation among G20 leaders to claim success. Their efforts to reflate the world economy may have avoided a 1930s-style Depression so far. But rising joblessness and years of pain may lie ahead as banks, businesses and households in the West continue to struggle to pay down their debts.
